Automotive and parts industry: policies favor automotive demand improvement
2023-06-14
Last week's market review: last week, the auto vehicle segment rose 0.95%, auto parts rose 2.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the auto vehicle outperformed the broader market by 0.72%, auto parts outperformed the market by 2.16%.
The fine-tuning of policies facilitates the improvement of car demand. After the weekend, the central government reduced the deposit reserve ratio. The fine-tuning of policies will benefit the improvement of auto demand. It is expected that the year-on-year growth of auto sales in January will be the low point in the first half of the year. In the automotive sub-sector, the sales growth of joint-venture brands and car companies is still far better than the industry average; if the 12-year new bus implementation is implemented, it will benefit the improvement of self-owned brand demand; the 11-year decline in micro-customer sales growth in January 2012 For the first time, passenger vehicles are better than narrow ones, and the demand for mini-vehicles is also improving. In reality, the demand for mini-vehicle terminals in some auto companies is much better than the growth rate of wholesale numbers. We believe that the main reasons are that the auto companies' own inventories return to normal levels; the second is that the demand effects of the 2009 and 10 year overdrafts in 2009 that will result in an 11-year overdraft will significantly decrease in 12 years; we believe that the new policies for the buses The effect and follow-up sustainability of mini vehicle demand are worth investors' attention.
Industry point of view: Maintain the continued optimism of Dazhong Coach Leading Company and high-quality passenger car companies, and pay attention to the improvement of micro-customer demand from some auto companies. We continue to favor the large and medium-sized bus industry and its leading companies. In January and February, the growth in total sales volume was a high-probability event. Due to the diminishing effect of exit policies on automobile stimuli, we can focus on the improvement in the follow-up demand of micro-subscribing customers; The growth rate of passenger vehicle sales is about 25%, and the policy is relaxed. Concern over whether demand for heavy trucks in March can pick up. The vehicle is still optimistic about Yutong Bus and Shanghai Automotive; spare parts are optimistic about Huayu Automobile, Zhongding shares, precision forging technology, mini cars focus on Changan Automobile, and heavy truck rebounds focus on Foton Motor.
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